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Re-evaluating the Potential Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination in 73 Gavi Countries: A Modelling Study

Background

Previous studies have found rotavirus vaccination to be highly cost-effective in low-income countries. However, updated evidence is now available for several inputs (ie, rotavirus disease mortality rates, rotavirus age distributions, vaccine timeliness, and vaccine efficacy by duration of follow-up), new rotavirus vaccines have entered the market, vaccine prices have decreased, and cost-effectiveness thresholds have been re-examined. We aimed to provide updated cost-effectiveness estimates to inform national decisions about the new introduction and current use of rotavirus vaccines in Gavi countries.

Findings

Over the period 2018–27, rotavirus vaccination has the potential to prevent nearly 600 000 deaths in Gavi countries. Averted outpatient visits and hospitalizations could lead to treatment savings of approximately $484·1 million from the government perspective and $878·0 million from the societal perspective. The discounted dollars per disability-adjusted life-year averted has a very high probability (>90%) of being less than 0·5 times the gross domestic product per capita in 54 countries, and less than 1·0 times gross domestic product per capita in 63 countries.

Interpretation

Rotavirus vaccination continues to represent good value for money across most Gavi countries despite lower rotavirus mortality estimates and more stringent willingness-to-pay thresholds.

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